Madaga-scary - Transcript - Hour 2, Segment 4

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Geek Speak, and by the way let me just say I would be thrilled in talking about this Forrester research stuff. I would be thrilled if I thought there was a chance that there could be 300,000 Podcasts by the year*s end. That would be fantastic but I mean because I love Podcasting but that*s just insane. I mean 300,000 Podcasts there is no way that that many people will start Podcasting by the end of the year. Maybe next year, maybe the year after that doesn*t seem so far fetched but 300,000 in the next six months, not likely. And 13 million in 2009 this reminds me of when they use to, when Forrester research and other analysts used to say things about what would happen to the web back in the year 1999 and 2000 you know that we will be spending hundreds of billions of dollars on certain items and they completely blew it on things like ring tones where we do spend hundreds of millions of dollars. I mean they make predictions that are just goofy. 13 million means that out of the 260 million people we have in this country, right. That 5% of the people in this country would be Podcasting, 5% would be Podcasting. Who has time to listen all that? I mean there is diminishing returns it happen here. 5% of the people right now are in blogging. So I can*t imagine they would be Podcasting which is greater barrier to entry, higher effort required and certainly not as easy even when it gets really easy to Podcast you still have to crack open a mike, you still have to have something to say and you still have to have the desire to continue doing the program after the first week, you know. There is lot of a Pod fade going out there already. People starting a Podcast and then abandoning it very quickly, just like there were cobwebs when websites were abandoned, started and abandoned and blogs were started and abandoned. Lot of people are finding that doing a Podcast, there are people who have started do a Podcast 5-10 minutes long once every week or so lose interest in it or find it too difficult too much effort because it is an art, I mean it*s a skill it*s an art and then they have a, they have brand new appreciation for me and what I do every night of the week three hours of programming nightly and what Lily does to produce that amount of programming. So that*s why I take all analyst stuff with a grain of salt because those numbers are just outrageous. I would love if they were true but there is no chance, no chance in a million years that well or in six months. By the end of this month, by the end of this year there will be 300,000 Podcasts out there. If I am wrong great we all win but I don*t think I am wrong so.

[Transcriptions provided by Datalyst]

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